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It was just two short weeks ago that Edmonton Oilers reached the highest point of what remains a promising 2019-20 season. In the midst of a 5-game road trip the club rolled to a convincing 4-2 win at Vegas, then hung tough to produce a 4-3 shootout win at Arizona just 22 hours later.
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But storm clouds were on the horizon. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins missed the second of those contestss with a hand issue that would sideline him for six games. Then Zack Kassian had a back injury that would cost him three of those same games. Edmonton’s forward corps, already dangerously thin in top six-calibre players, suffered a double blow. The club would fall into a six-game slide in which they were extremely fortunate to garner 5 standings points with a 2-3-1 record.
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Thank a red-hot powerplay for all of those points, as the Oilers were outscored at 5v5 in all six of those games. But 2 powerplay goals turned a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 win at Vancouver, 2 more PPG provided all the offence in a 2-1 nailbiter vs. Los Angeles, and a rare powerplay goal from the second unit produced the tying tally in an overtime loss against the Sabres.
Overall, a special team that has actually been special produced 6 of Edmonton’s 12 goals over that span. But at even strength the Oilers have been absolutely torched, with just 6 goals for, 17 against. Add in a shorty and 2 powerplay goals against and the net margin over the 6 games has been 12 goals for, 20 against, despite an overall +3 margin on special teams. Make it -11 at even strength, built convincingly on a shots rate of just 41%, a team shooting percentage barely above 5% and a save percentage below 90%. On a per-60 basis at evens the Oilers have scored 1.2 goals while allowing 3.5. Ugly, ugly numbers, all the way around.
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Four of those games have been at home, against teams that finished 23rd, 31st, 30th, and 27th in the NHL last season — not exactly Murderers’ Row. The Oilers scored just 2 goals in each of those games, all against teams which have allowed well north of 3 per game in both last season and this. 8 for, 14 against.
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The good news is that it’s “only” six games, and as mentioned the club has scraped out a few points against the flow of play. The bad? Edmonton’s top workhorses have collectively hit a Drai patch:
Leon Draisaitl has been a minus player in the last 7 consecutive games, and has been a net -12 over the past 11. No empty net goals in there either, in fact there have been no ENG for or against for the last 15 contests, many of which have been one-sided affairs. Over the past 6 Draisaitl has 5 points, but just 1 at even strength while being on the ice for 2 Oilers goals and 9 by the opposition. Leon was himself among the defensive culprits on 5 of those goals against by our analysis here at the Cult of Hockey.
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Connor McDavid has posted just 1-4-5 over the 6 games with a dash-4 of his own. McDavid has been a net -9 in his last 10 home games (3 wins) after posting a +9 in his first 5 (all wins).
James Neal has been goalless for his last … wait for it … 6 games, his longest drought of the season and also sports a dash-4 over that span. After an 11 goal October, Neal has struck for just 3 goals in 16 games since, with an ugly -12.
Oscar Klefbom may be the most concerning of the lot. The NHL’s top minute-muncher until recent days, Klefbom has posted just 1 (powerplay) point and a ghastly -12 over the last 6 games. Minus. Twelve. According to Natural Stat Trick the Oilers have been outshot just 56-51 during his 102 even-strength minutes (47%), but scoring chances tell a different tale at 32 for, 56 against (36%) and high-danger chances a dismal +10/-24 (29%). Our own project tagged Klefbom as a defensive culprit on 7 goals against over that period. Whether partnered with Caleb Jones, Adam Larsson, or Joel Persson, Klef has struggled.
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The Carolina Hurricanes (18-11-1, 37 pts) kick off a five-game road trip tonight when they face the Edmonton Oilers (18-10-4, 40 pts). It’s the first meeting of the year between the two teams; Carolina won both games against the Oilers last season.
Carolina Hurricanes (18-11-1, 37 pts) vs. Edmonton Oilers (18-10-4, 40 pts)
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Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2019 – 9:00 PM ET
Rogers Place – Edmonton, AB
Watch: Fox Sports Carolinas
Listen: 99.9 The Fan
SBN Opposition: The Copper & Blue
Follow Canes Country on Social Media
Facebook Canes Country
The Canes roll into Edmonton following back-to-back wins in Raleigh. A 6-2 victory over the Minnesota Wild on Saturday saw Sebastian Aho post a career-best five-point night. The 22-year-old Finn recorded his third career hat trick and added two assists for good measure.
With the offense rolling (11 goals over the last 2 games), the Canes will attempt to keep their defense on track. They’ve held their opponents to two goals in each of the previous four games, losing only once, a 2-0 shutout in Boston.
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The goalie in that shutout loss? James Reimer. Notwithstanding the loss — which can hardly be blamed on Reimer (He held the Bruins scoreless for 50-plus minutes) — the 31-year-old has been playing great. He’s made 30 or more saves in all but one of his last four outings. The only exception was a 19-save shutout against the Detroit Red Wings — so yeah, he’s red-hot.
Adding to the positive vibes, the Canes should get one of their best players back from the injury list. Rookie Martin Necas looks poised to return to the lineup. Necas and his much needed right-handed shot will bring some balance to the second power play unit, where Brett Pesce has been filling in for him. On the bad news front, Erik Haula has not made the trip out west; the center continues to rehab from a knee injury. Julien Gauthier was recalled from Charlotte and should skate on the fourth line as Jordan Martinook handles the 4th line Center duties.
Here’s how the Canes are expected to take the ice:
Nino Niederreiter – Sebastian Aho – Teuvo Teravainen
Andrei Svechnikov – Jordan Staal – Warren Foegele
Ryan Dzingel – Lucas Wallmark – Martin Necas
Brock McGinn – Jordan Martinook – Julien Gauthier
Jaccob Slavin – Dougie Hamilton
Joel Edmundson – Brett Pesce
Jake Gardiner – Trevor van Riemsdyk
Injuries and Scratches: Erik Haula (knee), Haydn Fleury (healthy)
The Edmonton Oilers are full of contradictions. They lead the Pacific Division; they boast two — two! — players that have already reached 50 points this year. Yet, they’re a collective minus-73 at even strength. For comparison, the Canes are plus-23.
Needless to say, the Oilers’ special teams are what make up the difference here. Their powerplay is tops in the league, with a sizzling 32.3% conversion rate. Their penalty kill ranks second at 87%.
Those two 50-point scorers — Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — will clearly need to be contained. Still, like the rest of the Oilers, they do most of their damage on the power play. Obviously, staying out of the box will be crucial for the Canes.
In net, Mikko Koskinen (11-3-2, .921 SV%, 2.53 GAA) should get the nod.
Here’s how the Oilers are expected to take the ice:
Joakim Nygard – Connor McDavid – Zack Kassian
Jujhar Khaira – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Leon Draisaitl
James Neal – Gaetan Haas – Alex Chiasson
Markus Granlund – Riley Sheahan – Josh Archibald
It’s going relatively unnoticed because they’ve been so efficient on the power play, but the Edmonton Oilers are in a pretty bad five-on-five scoring drought.
They’ve managed just three even-strength goals in the last four games while giving up 10 against.
They’ve been able to survive it (2-1-1) because the power play scored six.